Mortgage Affordability by State: Median Home vs. Median Income

What the numbers show

• The typical American household is over the line. The median home ($371,100) with 20% down ($74,220) means a $296,880 loan. At 7.32% that is $2,039 a month before property tax. With tax the payment is $2,318, or 32.8% of the $7,065 a month the median household earns before taxes.
• The spread between states is 38 percentage points. Only 16 of 51 places come in at or under 28%. The five most affordable are West Virginia (20.4%), Mississippi (23.5%), Iowa (24.4%), Arkansas (24.7%), and Indiana (25.1%). The five least affordable are Hawaii (58.9%), California (55.2%), District of Columbia (47.5%), Massachusetts (44.8%), and Washington (44.0%). California would need an income of $201,290, which is 2.0 times its actual median of $102,159.
• The rate rise alone is expensive. A year earlier the same Freddie Mac survey showed 6.19%. Holding the home value fixed, the higher rate adds $223 a month on the median U.S. home and lifts the national share from 29.7% to 32.8%. The number of places over 28% rises from 27 to 35.
• Property tax moves the ranking. Illinois and Pennsylvania have almost the same median home value ($294,400 and $292,400), but the Illinois payment is $208 higher because property tax adds $471 a month there against $274. At the other extreme, Hawaii has the lowest effective tax rate (0.26% of value) and still has the highest share of income, because the median home costs 8.6 times the median income.
• It is not only a coastal problem. Mountain West and Sun Belt states sit well above the guideline: Arizona (36.3%), Florida (36.3%), Idaho (38.1%), Nevada (38.1%), Utah (38.8%), and Montana (40.4%).

How the rate changes the picture

The mortgage rate is the one input that can change next week, so here is the same calculation at five rates. Each row recomputes all 51 places.

How we calculated it

Three Census Bureau tables supply the housing and income inputs for each state. We apply one fixed-rate loan formula to all of them.

Payment = P&I + (median property tax ÷ 12), where P&I = L × r ÷ (1 − (1 + r)⁻ⁿ)

• L is the loan: median home value (ACS table B25077) less a 20% down payment.
• r is the monthly rate: 7.32% ÷ 12 = 0.6100%. n is 360 monthly payments.
• Property tax is the median real estate tax paid by owner-occupied homes (B25103), divided by 12.
• Income is median household income (B19013) before taxes, divided by 12. Share of income is payment ÷ monthly income.
• Income needed is payment × 12 ÷ 0.28.

Worked example, United States: $371,100 × 80% = $296,880. At 7.32% over 360 months the principal and interest is $2,039. Property tax of $3,344 a year adds $279, for $2,318 a month. Median income of $84,780 is $7,065 a month, so the share is 32.8%. You can run the same inputs in our mortgage payment calculator.

What this report does not capture

• Values are from 2025; the rate is from October 22, 2026. Home values have moved since the survey year. The result is the cost of financing a 2025 median home at today’s rate. The 2025 estimates came out on October 29, 2026; the 2026 estimates are expected in fall 2027, and we will update this report after that release.
• Values are owner estimates. ACS asks owners what their home is worth. It is not a sales price, and it includes homes bought years ago. A first-time buyer usually buys below the median.
• Property tax reflects current owners. In states that reassess a home when it sells, California’s Proposition 13 being the best known, a new buyer’s bill is typically higher than the median owner’s, so the payment there is understated.
• Insurance, HOA dues, and maintenance are excluded. The common 28% guideline includes homeowners insurance, so the shares here are a floor. No private mortgage insurance is assumed because the down payment is 20%.
• Income covers all households. The median includes renters. Owner households earn more than the all-household median, so a typical buyer’s share can be lower than the figures here.
• The rate is a national average. Freddie Mac’s survey covers conforming loans for well-qualified borrowers with 20% down. Your rate depends on credit, loan type, and lender.
• ACS figures are estimates with margins of error. The Census Bureau publishes 90% margins for every number. We combine them into a conservative range for each share (hover a bar in the table). Most ranges are within about one percentage point of the estimate, but they are wider for District of Columbia (42.8% to 52.9%), Hawaii (56.2% to 61.8%), Alaska (28.9% to 33.2%), and Wyoming (29.6% to 33.7%). Treat states a point or two apart as ties.